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Heat pump vs gas furnace in Minnesota: heating cost by fuel (2026)

At Minnesota's average prices, a heat pump (COP 2.5) delivers heat for $19.05 per million BTU, versus $10.82 for a 95% gas furnace, $23.18 for propane and $50.25 for heating oil. That makes the heat pump more expensive than a new gas furnace here. It breaks even with gas at a seasonal COP of 4.40.

Heat pump, est. per year$1,578COP 2.5; $1,972 at COP 2.0, $1,315 at COP 3.0

Gas furnace, est. per year$89695% AFUE; $1,064 at 80%

Propane, est. per year$1,920heat pump breaks even at COP 2.05

Heating oil, est. per year$4,162heat pump breaks even at COP 0.95

Cost per unit of heat in Minnesota, cheapest first

System	$ per MMBtu delivered	Est. per year (82.8 MMBtu)
Gas furnace, 95% AFUE	$10.82	$896
Older gas furnace, 80% AFUE	$12.85	$1,064
Heat pump (seasonal COP 2.5)	$19.05	$1,578
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE	$23.18	$1,920
Electric resistance (baseboard/furnace), 100%	$47.62	$3,944
Heating oil furnace/boiler, 85%	$50.25	$4,162

The Minnesota inputs

Electricity: 16.25¢/kWh, residential average year-to-date through July 2026 (EIA Electric Power Monthly). U.S.: 18.19¢.
Natural gas: $10.65 per thousand cubic feet, average of EIA monthly residential prices for Oct 2025–Mar 2026 (6 months reported). U.S.: $15.60.
Propane: $2.01/gal, week of Oct 19, 2026 (a year earlier: $1.80); EIA state series. EIA weekly prices exclude taxes.
Heating oil: $5.92/gal, week of Oct 19, 2026 (a year earlier: $3.52); EIA state series. Excludes taxes.
Climate: 8,282 heating degree days per year (base 65°F); NOAA CPC population-weighted state average, 2011–2025.

Heating cost calculator

State

Heating degree days / yr

Heat needed per degree day (BTU)

Heat pump seasonal COP

Gas furnace AFUE (%)

Electricity (¢/kWh)

Natural gas ($/Mcf)

Propane ($/gal)

Heating oil ($/gal)

Defaults are the state's latest EIA prices and NOAA degree days; the BTU-per-degree-day, COP and efficiency values are our assumptions. Put in your own bill rates and a known annual heat use for a better answer. Runs in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere. Tip: 1 therm = 0.1 MMBtu; $/therm × 10.36 ≈ $/Mcf.

Assumptions (ours, not EIA/NOAA figures): heat pump seasonal COP 2.5 (we also show 2.0 for very cold climates and 3.0 for mild ones); gas furnace 95% AFUE (older units ~80%); propane furnace 95%; oil 85%; electric resistance 100%. Annual totals assume a home that needs 10,000 BTU of delivered heat per heating degree day, a round number for an existing house; a tight new home may need half that, a drafty one more. The per-MMBtu comparison does not depend on house size. Prices exclude equipment, installation, maintenance, fixed monthly utility charges and rebates. Method & sources.

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