Heat pump vs gas furnace, propane, oil: heating cost by state (2026)
At current state-average prices, a heat pump running at a seasonal COP of 2.5 is cheaper per unit of heat than a new 95% gas furnace in 11 of 51 places (50 states + DC), but beats propane in 47 of 51 and heating oil in 50 of 51.
11 of 51heat pump (COP 2.5) beats a 95% gas furnace
47 of 51heat pump beats propane (40 even at COP 2.0)
3.51median break-even COP vs gas (range 1.67 in Arkansas to 5.93 in Alaska)
$21.32 vs $15.85U.S.-average $/MMBtu: heat pump vs gas furnace
What the data show
- Against natural gas, the state's electricity-to-gas price ratio decides. The heat pump wins in 11 places at COP 2.5, 20 at COP 3.0, and 3 at COP 2.0. Against an older 80% furnace it wins in 20.
- Break-even COP is the number to know. It is the seasonal efficiency a heat pump needs to match a 95% gas furnace: just 1.67 in Arkansas, 1.70 in Florida, but 5.93 in Alaska and 5.71 in Michigan, where cheap gas sets a high bar.
- Propane and oil homes are where a heat pump is clearest. It beats propane in 47 of 51 places and oil in 50 of 51. U.S. residential heating oil is $6.19/gal (week of Oct 19, 2026), up 76% from $3.53 a year earlier. Propane is $2.69/gal, up 11% year over year.
- Colder places can still favor the heat pump. Of states with 4,000+ heating degree days, it beats gas at COP 2.5 in 2: Missouri, Washington. Real cold-weather COP varies by model and backup heat, so treat these as starting points.
- Biggest yearly gaps (our assumed home): among places with 2,000+ degree days, the heat pump saves the most vs gas in Arkansas ($252/yr saved) and costs the most extra in Alaska ($1,833/yr).
Heating cost calculator
Defaults are the state's latest EIA prices and NOAA degree days; the BTU-per-degree-day, COP and efficiency values are our assumptions. Put in your own bill rates and a known annual heat use for a better answer. Runs in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere. Tip: 1 therm = 0.1 MMBtu; $/therm × 10.36 ≈ $/Mcf.
All 50 states + DC, $ per million BTU of delivered heat
Sorted by break-even COP vs a 95% gas furnace (green = a COP-2.5 heat pump is cheaper than gas).
| State | Heating degree days | Heat pump | Gas 95% | Propane | Oil | Resistance | Break-even COP vs gas |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arkansas | 3,161 | $15.95 | $23.92 | $29.88 | $52.58 | $39.89 | 1.67 |
| Florida | 455 | $17.94 | $26.45 | $56.72 | $50.36 | $44.84 | 1.70 |
| Louisiana | 1,571 | $15.65 | $20.47 | $34.92 | $52.58 | $39.12 | 1.91 |
| Texas | 1,709 | $18.83 | $22.97 | $36.11 | $52.58 | $47.07 | 2.05 |
| North Carolina | 3,100 | $17.51 | $20.17 | $41.57 | $49.51 | $43.78 | 2.17 |
| Oklahoma | 3,452 | $15.92 | $18.33 | $27.07 | $50.20 | $39.80 | 2.17 |
| Georgia | 2,473 | $18.05 | $19.69 | $36.97 | $50.36 | $45.13 | 2.29 |
| Arizona | 1,997 | $18.10 | $19.67 | $30.95 | $52.58 | $45.25 | 2.30 |
| Missouri | 4,795 | $16.37 | $17.57 | $25.10 | $50.20 | $40.91 | 2.33 |
| Hawaii | 0 | $54.25 | $57.01 | $30.95 | $52.58 | $135.63 | 2.38 |
| Washington | 5,675 | $16.88 | $17.40 | $30.95 | $52.58 | $42.20 | 2.42 |
| Mississippi | 2,155 | $17.81 | $17.34 | $36.11 | $52.58 | $44.52 | 2.57 |
| Alabama | 2,332 | $19.39 | $18.85 | $41.13 | $52.58 | $48.47 | 2.57 |
| South Carolina | 2,438 | $18.67 | $17.80 | $42.13 | $50.36 | $46.69 | 2.62 |
| Kentucky | 4,169 | $16.73 | $15.68 | $32.74 | $50.03 | $41.82 | 2.67 |
| Oregon | 5,319 | $18.05 | $16.88 | $30.95 | $52.58 | $45.13 | 2.67 |
| Delaware | 4,315 | $20.94 | $19.06 | $43.22 | $54.63 | $52.34 | 2.75 |
| Virginia | 4,019 | $19.73 | $17.72 | $43.28 | $50.99 | $49.32 | 2.78 |
| Nebraska | 6,036 | $15.12 | $13.50 | $20.52 | $47.82 | $37.81 | 2.80 |
| Tennessee | 3,612 | $16.26 | $14.36 | $37.05 | $50.20 | $40.65 | 2.83 |
| Kansas | 4,751 | $17.83 | $14.82 | $23.87 | $50.20 | $44.58 | 3.01 |
| West Virginia | 4,878 | $18.14 | $14.43 | $42.13 | $50.36 | $45.34 | 3.14 |
| Wyoming | 7,725 | $16.35 | $12.66 | $26.93 | $52.58 | $40.88 | 3.23 |
| Utah | 6,312 | $15.43 | $11.12 | $26.81 | $52.58 | $38.57 | 3.47 |
| Massachusetts | 5,910 | $35.33 | $25.38 | $42.12 | $51.94 | $88.33 | 3.48 |
| Maryland | 4,313 | $24.97 | $17.79 | $43.73 | $54.12 | $62.42 | 3.51 |
| North Dakota | 8,854 | $14.49 | $10.14 | $19.00 | $50.20 | $36.22 | 3.57 |
| Nevada | 3,426 | $15.86 | $11.01 | $30.95 | $52.58 | $39.65 | 3.60 |
| Vermont | 7,442 | $28.08 | $18.54 | $44.67 | $51.79 | $70.19 | 3.79 |
| Rhode Island | 5,473 | $34.25 | $22.60 | $47.96 | $54.19 | $85.64 | 3.79 |
| Ohio | 5,379 | $21.92 | $14.42 | $30.47 | $51.23 | $54.80 | 3.80 |
| Iowa | 6,630 | $16.65 | $10.91 | $19.61 | $49.41 | $41.62 | 3.81 |
| New Hampshire | 6,941 | $31.41 | $20.08 | $44.23 | $51.25 | $78.51 | 3.91 |
| Pennsylvania | 5,445 | $24.66 | $15.75 | $36.41 | $51.53 | $61.66 | 3.92 |
| New Mexico | 4,226 | $17.68 | $10.93 | $34.92 | $52.58 | $44.19 | 4.04 |
| District of Columbia | 3,769 | $28.91 | $17.76 | $41.26 | $53.55 | $72.27 | 4.07 |
| South Dakota | 7,363 | $17.00 | $10.35 | $21.52 | $50.20 | $42.50 | 4.10 |
| Indiana | 5,381 | $19.98 | $11.88 | $29.45 | $51.42 | $49.94 | 4.20 |
| California | 2,403 | $38.98 | $22.68 | $30.95 | $52.58 | $97.45 | 4.30 |
| Colorado | 6,603 | $19.60 | $11.31 | $27.19 | $52.58 | $49.00 | 4.33 |
| Montana | 7,827 | $16.35 | $9.36 | $24.95 | $52.58 | $40.88 | 4.37 |
| Minnesota | 8,282 | $19.05 | $10.82 | $23.18 | $50.25 | $47.62 | 4.40 |
| Maine | 7,538 | $35.16 | $19.90 | $42.69 | $51.19 | $87.89 | 4.42 |
| Connecticut | 5,589 | $32.79 | $17.77 | $48.64 | $52.27 | $81.97 | 4.61 |
| New York | 5,871 | $34.44 | $18.49 | $42.90 | $54.51 | $86.10 | 4.66 |
| New Jersey | 4,989 | $28.11 | $15.02 | $46.90 | $54.21 | $70.28 | 4.68 |
| Illinois | 5,858 | $22.53 | $11.62 | $22.36 | $50.20 | $56.33 | 4.85 |
| Wisconsin | 7,231 | $22.27 | $11.47 | $22.33 | $49.15 | $55.68 | 4.85 |
| Idaho | 6,702 | $15.19 | $7.42 | $29.77 | $52.58 | $37.98 | 5.12 |
| Michigan | 6,495 | $25.24 | $11.04 | $28.02 | $49.34 | $63.10 | 5.71 |
| Alaska | 9,979 | $31.76 | $13.39 | $30.95 | $52.58 | $79.39 | 5.93 |
Assumptions (ours, not EIA/NOAA figures): heat pump seasonal COP 2.5 (we also show 2.0 for very cold climates and 3.0 for mild ones); gas furnace 95% AFUE (older units ~80%); propane furnace 95%; oil 85%; electric resistance 100%. Annual totals assume a home that needs 10,000 BTU of delivered heat per heating degree day, a round number for an existing house; a tight new home may need half that, a drafty one more. The per-MMBtu comparison does not depend on house size. Prices exclude equipment, installation, maintenance, fixed monthly utility charges and rebates. Method & sources.
Method and sources
- Cost per MMBtu delivered = fuel price ÷ energy content ÷ efficiency. Energy content (EIA): natural gas 1.036 MMBtu per thousand cubic feet, propane 91,452 BTU/gal, No. 2 heating oil 138,500 BTU/gal, electricity 3,412 BTU/kWh.
- Break-even COP = electricity $/MMBtu ÷ gas furnace $/MMBtu delivered. Above it the heat pump is cheaper.
- Annual estimate = heating degree days × 10,000 BTU (assumption) × $/MMBtu.
- Electricity: EIA Electric Power Monthly Table 5.6.B, residential, year-to-date through July 2026.
- Natural gas: EIA Natural Gas Prices, residential, monthly; simple average of Oct 2025–Mar 2026 (most recent full heating season; latest month published: July 2026). Some states have months withheld; we average the months reported. Monthly residential prices include fixed charges spread over volume, so winter months are lower than summer.
- Propane and heating oil: EIA Heating Oil and Propane Update, weekly residential prices excluding taxes, week of Oct 19, 2026. States not surveyed use the EIA regional average; West Coast states, Alaska and Hawaii have no survey, so the U.S. average is shown and flagged.
- Heating degree days: NOAA Climate Prediction Center population-weighted state degree days, average of 2011–2025; Alaska, Hawaii and DC use NOAA 1991–2020 normals at Anchorage, Honolulu and Reagan National airports (station proxies).
- All sources are U.S. government works in the public domain. Built with AI assistance; formulas and inputs are shown so you can check them. Not financial or purchasing advice; get quotes and a load calculation before buying equipment.