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Heat pump vs gas furnace in Texas: heating cost by fuel (2026)

At Texas's average prices, a heat pump (COP 2.5) delivers heat for $18.83 per million BTU, versus $22.97 for a 95% gas furnace, $36.11 for propane and $52.58 for heating oil. That makes the heat pump cheaper than a new gas furnace here. It breaks even with gas at a seasonal COP of 2.05.

Heat pump, est. per year$322COP 2.5; $402 at COP 2.0, $268 at COP 3.0

Gas furnace, est. per year$39395% AFUE; $466 at 80%

Propane, est. per year$617heat pump breaks even at COP 1.30

Heating oil, est. per year$899heat pump breaks even at COP 0.90

Cost per unit of heat in Texas, cheapest first

System	$ per MMBtu delivered	Est. per year (17.1 MMBtu)
Heat pump (seasonal COP 2.5)	$18.83	$322
Gas furnace, 95% AFUE	$22.97	$393
Older gas furnace, 80% AFUE	$27.28	$466
Propane furnace, 95% AFUE	$36.11	$617
Electric resistance (baseboard/furnace), 100%	$47.07	$804
Heating oil furnace/boiler, 85%	$52.58	$899

The Texas inputs

Electricity: 16.06¢/kWh, residential average year-to-date through July 2026 (EIA Electric Power Monthly). U.S.: 18.19¢.
Natural gas: $22.61 per thousand cubic feet, average of EIA monthly residential prices for Oct 2025–Mar 2026 (6 months reported). U.S.: $15.60.
Propane: $3.14/gal, week of Oct 19, 2026 (a year earlier: $2.93); EIA state series. EIA weekly prices exclude taxes.
Heating oil: $6.19/gal, week of Oct 19, 2026 (a year earlier: $3.53); not surveyed in this state; EIA U.S. average shown. Excludes taxes.
Climate: 1,709 heating degree days per year (base 65°F); NOAA CPC population-weighted state average, 2011–2025.

Heating cost calculator

State

Heating degree days / yr

Heat needed per degree day (BTU)

Heat pump seasonal COP

Gas furnace AFUE (%)

Electricity (¢/kWh)

Natural gas ($/Mcf)

Propane ($/gal)

Heating oil ($/gal)

Defaults are the state's latest EIA prices and NOAA degree days; the BTU-per-degree-day, COP and efficiency values are our assumptions. Put in your own bill rates and a known annual heat use for a better answer. Runs in your browser; nothing is sent anywhere. Tip: 1 therm = 0.1 MMBtu; $/therm × 10.36 ≈ $/Mcf.

Assumptions (ours, not EIA/NOAA figures): heat pump seasonal COP 2.5 (we also show 2.0 for very cold climates and 3.0 for mild ones); gas furnace 95% AFUE (older units ~80%); propane furnace 95%; oil 85%; electric resistance 100%. Annual totals assume a home that needs 10,000 BTU of delivered heat per heating degree day, a round number for an existing house; a tight new home may need half that, a drafty one more. The per-MMBtu comparison does not depend on house size. Prices exclude equipment, installation, maintenance, fixed monthly utility charges and rebates. Method & sources.

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